lake powell water level forecast 2022

But a long-term drying trend began in the year 2000. Upper Colorado River Basin regularly experiences significant year to year hydrologic variability. Our editorial policy and donor list can be viewed atwateredco.org. Along its route, the river passes through an elaborate water-management system designed to tame the yearly floods from spring snowmelt and to provide a reliable supply of water for residents as far away as California. swE{,,;o0U|+/ :u7j@;pGh00gr\j30sAD+ ON 9 As of September 20, 2021, the water elevation at Glen Canyon Dam was 3,546.93 feet, more than 153 feet below "full pool" (elevation 3,700 feet). SW Water Vapor, Accessibility of Launch Ramps, Primitive Launches and Other Sites Projections at Lake Mead show there is a chance as high as 66% that water levels will decline to 1,025 feet by 2025, triggering a Tier 3 Shortage. But it is concerning. By, What We Know, And What You Can Do To Help. If you have feedback on content, format, or publication frequency, please contact us. On Tuesday, the lake fell below 3,525 feet above sea level, a key target elevation that water managers have been trying to keep Powell above because it provides a buffer from the minimum level at which Glen Canyon Dam can generate power. Click for Details, Current Snowpack Conditions for Upper Colorado Basin. Few expected to ever see this drop in hydropower production, let alone consider what to do if Glen Canyon were to cease electricity production entirely. However, these responses can have a noticeable impact on the river downstream of Glen Canyon Dam. 15 Day Weather Forecast But the 30-year period is the standard reference worldwide and captures more variability, according to Paul Miller of the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center. Surface Water Elevation (feet) Lake Powell End of Month Elevations1 . The last couple months have steadied out a little bit, Cody Moser, a senior hydrologist with NOAA forecast center, said during a recent web briefing to review the most recent report. The nation's second-largest reservoir is under pressure from climate change and steady demand, and is now . New 1991-2020 Averages being used this year. Melissa joined KNAU's team in 2015 to report on science, health, and the environment. The reduction of releases from Glen Canyon Dam in water year 2022 (resulting in increased storage in Lake Powell) will not affect future operating determinations and will be accounted for as if this volume of water had been delivered to Lake Mead. Using the approach described in the immediately preceding paragraph, the August 2022 24-Month Study projected the January 1, 2023, Lake Powell elevation to be less than 3,525 feet. The water levels at Lake Powell have dropped around 100 feet in the last three years. Among the dams on the Colorado is Arizonas Glen Canyon Dam, which creates Lake Powell. The lake held just 30 percent of its capacity. //-->, Printable Version We are 37% through the Water Year. The lake is set to reach. Committee on the Scientific Bases of Colorado River Basin Water Management, National Research Council. That reference period is updated once a decade; it now begins in the 1990s. A 59% flow into Powell translates to about 3.8 million acre-feet. For more information on the tools we use, consult, Upper Colorado Mainstem Specific Site Forecasts. Click to share on Twitter (Opens in new window), Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window), Click to share on Reddit (Opens in new window), Click to email a link to a friend (Opens in new window), Wind affected on the west and south facing aspects of the Gore Range seen on, April 7, 2022, near Vail. Level 3 Shortage Condition 1,025 ft and below Elevation 1,090 ft Elevation 1,045 ft Historical Future Specifically, Reclamation modeled operations in WY 2023 as follows in the August and September 24-Month Studies: In accordance with the May 3rd Letter, consistent with the provisions of the 2007 Interim Guidelines, and to preserve the benefits to Glen Canyon Dam facilities from 2022 Operations into 2023 and 2024, Reclamation will consult with the Basin States on monthly and annual operations. To view the most current reservoir elevation projections, click on: Lake Powell Elevation Projections. The March 2023 releases are anticipated to fluctuate between a low of 5,276 cfs to a high of 9,641 cfs. In July 2021, water levels on the lake fell to the lowest point since 1969 and have continued dropping. 175 0 obj <>/Filter/FlateDecode/ID[<68753438768B134985CC80C922059B30>]/Index[159 34]/Info 158 0 R/Length 84/Prev 199590/Root 160 0 R/Size 193/Type/XRef/W[1 2 1]>>stream Lukas noted that the dry soil conditions are factored into the NOAA runoff predictions from the get-go so there shouldnt necessarily be any big surprises with that particular variable. The water level in Lake Powell was at a record low when rain and snow began to fall across the Colorado River Basin in October, soaking dry soils ahead of the winter season. 2018 brought some relief after a wet winter. Water levels in Lake Powell dropped to a new record low on Tuesday. The unregulated inflow volume to Lake Powell during January was 361 thousand acre-feet (kaf) (107 percent of average). Sunday, February 26, 2023 12:00:00 AM Level is 178.87 feet An initiative of the Center for Environmental Journalism at the University of Colorado Boulder. The most probable inflow scenario reflects a median hydrologic condition which statistically would be exceeded 50 percent of the time. The Water Desks mission isto increase the volume, depth and power of journalismconnected to Western water issues. The Glen Canyon Dam annual release has initially been set to 7.00 maf, and in April 2023 Reclamation will evaluate hydrologic conditions to determine if balancing releases may be appropriate under the conditions established in the 2007 Interim Guidelines; Balancing releases will be limited (with a minimum of 7.00 maf) to protect Lake Powell from declining below elevation 3,525 feet at the end of December 2023; Balancing releases will take into account operational neutrality of the 0.480 maf that was retained in Lake Powell under the. Last Reading: 3521.11 on Feb 27, 2023 Powell was last within 2" of this elevation on Feb 26, 2023 There are currently 1,734,731,016,499 gallons of water in Lake Powell! google_color_text = "000000"; levels. The deep, narrow, meandering reservoir extends upstream into southern Utah. 04:12 - Source: CNN Click for . The probable maximum inflow scenario reflects a wet hydrologic condition which statistically would be exceeded 10 percent of the time. Changes in the northeastern reaches of Lake Powell are documented in this series of natural-color images taken by the Landsat series of satellites between 1999 and 2021. %PDF-1.7 % These long-term projections help water managers plan for future shortages, which are increasingly likely in the Colorado River Basin, in part because of warmer temperatures brought on by global climate change. In addition to daily scheduled fluctuations for power generation, the instantaneous releases from Glen Canyon Dam may also fluctuate to provide 40 megawatts (MW) of system regulation. Shortages have been implemented by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation in areas like Arizona as water levels in the reservoir have consistently dropped for the past 10 years. a greater portion of the future hydrologic and climatic uncertainty becomes known and Reclamation will continue to consult with the Basin States, Basin Tribes, the Republic of Mexico and other partners on Colorado River operations to consider and determine whether additional measures should be taken to further enhance the preservation of these benefits, as well as recovery protocols, including those of future protective measures for both Lakes Powell and Mead. Gas Prices on Lake The deep, narrow, meandering reservoir extends upstream into southern Utah. google_ad_type = "text_image"; Low water effects to launch ramps and services top Lake Powell Elevation (05/18/2022) 3526.05 ft Stay in the know! Among the dams on the Colorado is Arizona's Glen Canyon Dam, which creates Lake Powell. The Colorado River flows in from the east around Mille Crag Bend and is swallowed by the lake. Encompassing all or parts of Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, New Mexico, Texas, Utah and Wyoming. The most recent data is from Monday, February 27th, 2023. 0 The draft plan is expected to be released next week, according to Becki Bryant, a spokeswoman for Reclamations Upper Colorado River Region. inflow forecast for water year 2022 by approximately 2.2 million acre-feet from . View our Current Membership Thank You Gifts, KNAU News Talk - Arizona Public Radio | Click for Details, Current Snowpack Conditions for Upper Colorado Basin. A visual history of the water level of each of our Lake Powell trips over the past three years. and last updated 5:24 PM, Sep 24, 2021. The forecast estimated that the amount of water that will flow into Lake Powell this spring and summer will be about 59% of average, based on 30 years of data from 1991 to 2020. Depending on the severity of the system emergency, the response from Glen Canyon Dam can be significant, within the full range of the operating capacity of the power plant for as long as is necessary to maintain balance in the transmission system. But the region is battling a multidecade drought with rain harder to come by. For additional information, see the following news release: https://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/#/news-release/4196. But the declining water already has drained some of the fun, he said. Under the current most probable forecast, the total water year 2023 unregulated inflow to Lake Powell is projected to be 10.44 maf (109 percent of average). The reservoir's levels rise after consistent rain or snowpack melt in the area. As of Tuesday, February 28th, 2023 where elevation was 3521.04', Copyright Summit Technologies, Inc.1999 - 2023Site Views Today: 0Page Views Today: 0, The 28 tracked reservoirs above Lake Powell are currently at 58.69% of capacity. While the lake was significantly higher in 2011 and 2012 than in 2005, a careful comparison of the side canyons reveals that the level was still not back to 1999 levels, when the lake was near full capacity. There are continued discussions when and how that same amount of water (0.523 maf) will be . As a news piece, this article cites verifiable, third-party sources which have all been thoroughly fact-checked and deemed credible by the Newsroom in accordance with the Civil Constitution. SW Satellite Weather Consistent with Section 6.D.1 of the Interim Guidelines, Lake Powells operations in water year 2023 are governed by the Lower Elevation Balancing Tier (LEBT) with an initial projected water year release volume of 7.00 maf. With low-runoff conditions and . google_color_link = "0000FF"; Lund said that throughout the reservoir's history, it has refilled to its original levels just once. The release volume from Glen Canyon Dam in January was 500 kaf. Glen Canyon Dam currently maintains 30 mw (approximately 800 cfs) of generation capacity in reserve in order to respond to a system emergency even when generation rates are already high. (At normal water levels, both rivers are essentially part of the reservoir.) (2019-2021) AND my own personal prediction of 2022 based on p. Reclamation will continue to carefully monitor hydrologic and operational conditions and assess the need for additional responsive actions and/or changes to operations. :pNB/gb2D0p6Ecb :qD_q7wE42TOOSW:Oa^(-]p7y|iZ.8uq:}1y3bJ]!G ) ytRdJp2 +[|}QpEU}V'k{yeKud"xl_-x lJ!UZ`,n!\3{dcb Mitchell declined to discuss the pending drought operations plan. This is the big warning bell.. Much of that water. google_ad_type = "text_image"; google_color_text = "000000"; View CFS Last 14 Measurements Lake Powell is down -1.03 feet over these measurements Averages for February 27th Last 10 February 27th's data records @) .=] j Bvq2 4=B4[YCO@p/e`5[ #("A3?M|Cd(Jje(B_il:.\7m=.{CZ&&q5O}NOB6jGptUEN1Dh'6dW30oLqmt1W#F/qy<5aJ5 LuQmB(JD'4z`9q#v k[ T Under a Drought Contingency Plan adopted in 2019, approximately 500 thousand acre-feet (kaf) of water will come from Flaming Gorge Reservoir, located approximately 455 river miles upstream of Lake Powell. This level is actually .02 feet . We maintain a strict editorial firewall between our funders and our journalism. water-data.com LakePowell Water Database . Scientists say the current drought is the driest on record in the last twelve hundred years. The period 2000-2022 is the lowest 23-year period since the closure of Glen Canyon Dam in 1963, with an average unregulated inflow of 8.29 maf, or 93 percent of the 30-year average (1991-2020). The system is appreciated for the water it supplies, but criticized for the environmental problems and cultural losses that have resulted from its creation. According to Jay Lund, vice director for the Center for Watershed Sciences and a professor at the University of California, the long-term average use in the lower Colorado River Basin exceeds the long-term flow of water, meaning the only solution is to "substantially reduce water use" in the basin. Lake Powell Water Supply Outlook, February 1, 2022 Note: This publication is scheduled for revision. Last Reading: 3522.33 on Feb 12, 2023. Additionally, there are possible inflow scenarios that would result in reservoir elevations falling outside the ranges indicated in these reports. google_ad_width = 160; It took decades for Lake Powell to reach catastrophically low levels, and according to one expert . By 2002, the lake level had dropped far enough that the exposed canyon walls created a pale outline around the lake. In the main body of Lake Powell, water pooled along its eastern edge, while large expanses of dry canyon floor were visible in the west. Last week, the Bureau of Reclamation announced extraordinary action to keep the water level at Powell from dropping too low, which could threaten hydropower production at Powells Glen Canyon Dam. Back then, Hannegan said, We made an assumption that our WAPA (Western Area Power Administration) allocation would be firm, reliable and always there. water-data.com Lake Powell Water Database. Though the 2022 forecast isnt expected to be finalized until later this month, water officials expect that more water will have to be released from Upper Basin storage reservoirs this summer because inflows into the lake from the drought-stressed Colorado River are expected to be well below average again, in the 60% to 80% range. This includes directly interviewing sources and research / analysis of primary source documents. The forecast for water year 2023 unregulated inflow to Lake Powell, issued on January 5, 2023, by the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center, projects that the most probable (median) unregulated inflow volume in water year 2023 will be 9.5 maf (99 percent of average). Water supply forecasts take into consideration present hydrometeorological conditions and use That projection is about 12 feet higher than the 2023 end-of-year mark in the bureau's forecast from December. Precipitation declines combined with booming urban populations will present a significant challenge to Western water managers in the near future. Precipitation was better, but still slightly below normal in the Upper Colorado River Basin. google_color_border = "FFFFFF"; https://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/news-release/4294, https://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/#/news-release/4196, USGS site #09180500 - Colorado River near Cisco, UT, USGS site #09315000 - Green River at Green River, UT, USGS site #09379500 - San Juan River near Bluff, UT, USGS site #09380000 - Colorado River at Lees Ferry, AZ, Snowpack Conditions Upper Colorado Region Above Lake Powell, Lake Powell Inflow Forecast April-July Inflow Forecast, Current Water Year Inflow Forecast Monthly Outlooks, Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program, LTEMP - Long-Term Experimental & Management Plan, Report to Congress - Operations of Glen Canyon Dam - Water Year 2015-2016, National Park Service Glen Canyon National Recreation Area, National Park Service Grand Canyon National Park, U.S. High of 9,641 cfs for Details, current Snowpack Conditions for Upper Colorado River flows from! 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